Predicting the future

Today as I was thinking about a topic to write for the blog an interesting idea presented itself. Given our current political environment I knew that it would make for a good post.
Before president Trump became president I knew that he would be president. I didn’t know with a hundred percent certainty but enough to make a bet on it. In case your wondering what I did with the money then you will be pleased to know that I didn’t win. I didn’t win because at the time it felt like a ridiculous claim so I didn’t follow it up. And because it wasn’t an official wager. Perhaps even my friend knew of the inevitable so he didn’t back up his candidate.  
Why didn’t I follow it up? The better question is that how did I know? Scientifically if something happens three times in a row(or so the magicians tell me) it’s no longer luck. Well it can be but the odds of that happening are astronomical. Why am I telling you all this? Because back in 2008 I also placed a similar wager. My first one ever. As I had placed my money on Barack you can guess the outcome of that. 
Back in 2015 my friend was going to the states so I asked her to bring me some books which were hard to find in Lahore. One of the books was a book by Matthew Hertenstein (no relation) called The Tell.
Now to answer why I didn’t follow up on the bet. But first a story. In Switzerland researchers asked children aged five to thirteen who would win the elections for the French parliament(if you already have the book this is on page 164). The children were told to play a video game simulating a ship voyage from Troy to Ithaca. The pictures of the candidates were shown to the kids. They were then asked by the researchers that who would they like to be the captain of their ship. 
This is taken from the book: “If you told your friends that kids as young as five could accurately predict who would win the political elections in a different country, the might gaze at your incredulously. But this is exactly what the Swiss team found and reported in Science: the children’s preferred choice of captain happened to be the winning parliamentary candidate 71 percent of the time.”
The researches did the same with photographs of Obama, McCain and Hillary Clinton. 77 percent choose Obama over McCain and 90 percent choose Obama over Clinton. 
So the next time you want to make a little money or go all out you know what to do. Ask a kid. Or a hundred. 
Why didn’t I follow up on the bet you ask again. Well maybe I did.


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